Description: Abstract: Odd patterns in mortality curves can be caused by bad data. The author hypothesizes that the negatively sloped mortality rates at the highest ages for U.S. males are caused by overstating age at death, and the low mortality rates for Japanese females by failure to report deaths. The paper upholds the first hypothesis but soundly defeats the second. The paper also demonstrates the impact of mishandling incurred but unreported deaths.

Description: Presented at Living to 100 Symposium, January 2011. This paper explores the select period and the wealth effect at older ages, and also examines mortality rates for three distinct senior populations: 1. the U.S. population, through an annual sample of the Medicare database of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2. the life settlement population of an independent life settlement underwriter, 21st Services LLC, and 3. the population implied by the Society of Actuaries' 2008 Valuation Basic Tables VBT.

Description: The absract for the paper Increased Longevity and the Challenge of Determining qx at Extreme Ages, Part 2 - Coping with Longevity: The New German Annuity Valuation Table DAV 2004 R.

Description: Abstract: We introduce a logistic regression-based modeling approach for analyzing the U.S. insured mortality experience, including at advanced ages where less credible experience data are available. As a validation, we create a version of industry basic experience tables based on the model-estimated mortality and compare them to standard industry experience tables produced by the Society of Actuaries (SOA). The conclusion is that properly designed logistic modeling processes can more efficiently utilize available data to deliver solutions for multiple needs, including: a) testing mortality drivers’ statistical significances in explaining mortality variations; b) estimating normalized mortality slopes and mortality differentials such as how mortality increases by duration or varies between underwriting classes while product and attained-age distributions are controlled; and c) addressing analytical challenges such as extrapolating for ultimate mor tality, smoothing between select and ultimate estimations, and constructing multidimensional basic experience tables.

Description: Expert discussion of two previously presented papers: Trajectories of Disability and Mortality among the U.S. Elderly Population: Evidence from the 1984-1999 NLTCS Stallard and The Interdependency of Increasing Life Expectancy and Driving Life Expectancy of Elderly Populations Leng and Wen. From 2005 Living to 100 and Beyond Monograph, M-LI05-1.

Description: List of Tables. From Retirement Implications of Demographic and Family Change Symposium Monograph, M-RS02-2.

Description: This paper shows how discrete multivariate analysis or multidimensional contingency table methods may be applied to data arising in actuarial work. A brief introduction to the theory is followed by two detailed examples of its application. Finally, the concluding remarks indicate how the procedure could be incorporated into a complete rate-making procedure. This work was performed for the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.

Description: Complete Actuarial Futures newsletter from October 2000.

Description: We introduce a logistic regression-based modeling approach for analyzing the U.S. insured mortality experience, including at advanced ages where less credible experience data are available. As a validation, we create a version of industry basic experience tables based on the model-estimated mortality and compare them to standard industry experience tables produced by the Society of Actuaries (SOA). The conclusion is that properly designed logistic modeling processes can more efficiently utilize available data to deliver solutions for multiple needs, including: a) testing mortality drivers’ statistical significances in explaining mortality variations; b) estimating normalized mortality slopes and mortality differentials such as how mortality increases by duration or varies between underwriting classes while product and attained-age distributions are controlled; and c) addressing analytical challenges such as extrapolating for ultimate mor tality, smoothing between select and ultimate estimations, and constructing multidimensional basic experience tables.

Description: The Lee and Carter LC method is getting widely adopted for long-run forecasts of age specific mortality rates. That popularity is first due to the model simplicity. Moreover, the LC model has given successful results for various countries e.g. U.S., Chile, G7 countries. However, some difficulties arose when using population data from certain countries such as UK and Australia. In the present paper, the LC model is applied to data from four Nordic countries: Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. The Singular Value Decomposition SVD, the Weighted Least Square WLS and the Maximum Likelihood estimate MLE are used. These approaches give satisfactory results. The appropriate fitting period needs, however, to be well chosen. The properties of the model's parameters are studied using a bootstrap simulation.